A Tangled Web

The Friday Essay….



THE TROUBLE WITH TRIMBLE….



My erstwhile political colleague Robert McCartney summed up the trouble with Trimble succinctly. “Intelligence and weakness, a fatal combination” Anyone who has spent any day in Trimble’s company would be aware of the accuracy of that comment.



Following on from his seismic triumph last weekend garnering the support of almost 60% of his party’s ruling executive, a number of interesting questions now arise. Why is it that David Trimble continues to command loyalty from a working majority of his Party when his period of leadership is, by all measurable criteria, been abysmal? Is it possible that he can ever be unseated in a party where the status quo is everything? What will the dissatisfied within the ranks do, since by their own analysis, Trimble is leading them to electoral marginalisation? How will the electorate respond to a continued period of Trimble’s stewardship?



I think the curious fact of Trimble’s continued survival is best explained by understanding that the Party over which he presides suffers from advanced political alzheimer’s. Its short-term memory has gone. It is showing little evidence of recognising the massive political problems that afflict it. The brutal truth is that the UUP is in denial of its rejection by the pro-Union electorate. This failure to deal with current reality requires a suspension of certain beliefs from those within the Party and prime amongst these is the idea that the glorious leader that they keep re-electing may in fact have been a complete disaster all along! Trimble’s survival offers the donkey rank and file the opportunity to pat themselves on the back, confident that their judgement has been the right one. What a warm feeling of the political perspicuity that fills the ranks. Or so they imagine.



The other reason that Trimble survives is the sober fact that there is no obvious replacement leader. The notion floated by David Burnside of an Empey/Smyth leadership is risible. It’s not just that Empey is damned through his serial endorsement of Trimble’s’ policies – it’s that he lacks any charisma or courage. If he really wanted to lead the Party but can’t find the guts to say so, then what does that say for his leadership qualities? As for Smythe, whilst he does command respect amongst the broader unionist population, his best days are behind him. Therefore, whither the challenge to Trimble? The Party has haemorrhaged talent, its’ best young people have now all flown the coup. Indeed, If Robert Oliver or John Hoey are the best that Trimble’s critics can come up with – then the Upper Bann MP may have years in front of him as leader! These people are pygmies compared to Trimble.



More interestingly, it is worth considering what will the dissatisfied within the ranks now do? My bet is that they will sit on their hands, bitch in private and do absolutely nothing else. I can’t see mass defections for one very simple reason; anyone still within the Party is so limp and lettuce-like that they are psychologically incapable of leaving Mothership Cunningham House. Their patron saint is Willy Ross – a decent man but utterly wrapped up in the past of a party with no future. They will plot and make mischief for Trimble and will dream of a glorious day when somehow, someway, Trimble will jump and then they might get a chance to do something. When the Euro-result comes in they will complain, and when the next General Election result confirms the virtual eradication of the UUP as a presence at Westminster, they may even try to have another go at Trimble. But they will fail, as they always fail. The biggest political failure of all is Burnside, whose coup de’etat against Trimble was laughable. He has a degree of political smarts but not enough to realise that the Party he is a member of rejects his policies. It is probably best that these strutting incompetents deserve to all within the one party. They are sufficient snobs to consider themselves “above” the DUP and sufficiently stupid not to realise the reverse to be true!



How will the electorate view this renewed period of Trimble’s reign? Well, according to many within the UUP new members are queuing up to join the Party. They also believe that the Earth is flat and Elvis is still alive. I have frequently argued that the Ulster Unionist Party’s real problem is not just Trimble and the ragbag personalities with which he surrounds himself, but rather the serious disconnect with what ordinary unionists want. The UUP strategies are not in situ to capture grass-root unionist sentiment. That is why this June will see Nicholson’s vote suffer. The electorate, by and large, has rumbled Trimble’s policies. They don’t trust him. Gerry Adams may crow “Well Done David” but Mr. Average Unionist thinks “Good bye David.” Luckily, a section of Unionism, which I term Vichy, will support Trimble all the way to oblivion. These are the very people who last Saturday cheered on the Leader who has brought them the worst results in their history. Well done David.



The Ulster Unionist Party has become a political death cult, with Trimble as the high priest seeking to find fulfilment in electoral suicide. I do not believe it can reconnect with the pro-Union electorate in the way that it needs to if it was to have any meaningful future. So Trimble can stay; the rank and file can continue to dream of past glories; and they will continue to fight over why the electorate rejects them. History has passed them by. And that is the real trouble for Trimble.