A Tangled Web

Re-energising Separatism?



With the holidays in full swing and the attention of political pundits focused elsewhere, the spotlight has been taken off the internal wranglings of the SNP and its bid to find a new leader. The fortunes of the party (committed to the same repellent constitutional objectives as the SDLP and Sinn Fein/IRA) have been in sharp decline in recent years, to the extent that former leader, Alex Salmond, is back in contention for a second spell as party leader.



What does the downward trajectory of the SNP say about the general principle of undermining separatism? We only have to look at the fortunes of movements committed to the break-up of the United Kingdom in the various parts of the 'Celtic Fringe'. As aforementioned, the SNP is in decline; Plaid Cymru in Wales is doing little better; yet separatism in Northern Ireland is reaching unprecedented heights. Of course the crucial difference between nationalist movements in Scotland and Wales on the one hand, and Irish nationalism in Ulster on the other, comes in the contradictory stance of HM Government to their respective roles in provincial political life.



For example, Government policy towards the SNP and Plaid Cymru is unambiguous: nationalism is an affront to the cohesion of the Union (in Great Britain only) and must be excluded from mainstream decision making. In Northern Ireland, the reverse principle applies: nationalism is supposedly an indispensable part of any settlement because of its 'electoral strength and future growth'. Well, let's look at the factors behind this growth.



Most of you will be aware of my research on demographics. The Catholic population will cease to grow long before it has reached the crucial 50% mark in the total population. Moreover, there is significant pro-Union Catholic sentiment (which does not manifest itself in support for Unionist parties because of their 'Protestant ethos'), and the support for the Union in academic studies conducted over the last three decades has declined by an overall average of only 10% (it still accounts for between 58% and 63% of respondents). Still, according to HM Government, Irish nationalism as an ideology must be placated. The reasons are dubious in the extreme. Between 1991 and 2001 the Catholic population grew by 1.6%, yet the total nationalist vote increased by 7% . Conclusive proof, if any were needed, that appeasing separatism energises the electorate and encourages growth; pruning separatism has the opposite effect. Thus, if two respective governments are really serious about halting the growth of the Sinn Fein Brownshirts, they could start by refusing to indulge them and their aspirations.