A Tangled Web

Ulster's Birthrate Convergence Continues



NISRA has, today, published the latest population trends for Northern Ireland. It further confirms my analysis that the Catholic birthrate has dropped dramatically over the past few years and will continue to do so. As recently as the early 1990's, the birthrate (the number of children born per 1,000 of the population) in district councils with large Catholic majorities was between 17 - 18. Now, as we shall see, the rate over the last 10 years has fallen considerably (whilst that of Protestant areas has remained largely stable.



I was recently asked to forecast what the eventual demographic balance of the population would be. I opined it would eventually be in the region of 50.5% Protestant, 47% Catholic and 2.5% 'Other' around 2018. I also said the birthrates between the two communities would converge around 2009 - 2011. On the basis of the figures given today I see no reason to alter my projections.

Birthrates by District Council Areas - 2003

Key: *= Majority Protestant areas.

# = Majority Catholic areas.

^ = Approximate balance between the two groups.

Antrim* = 14.3

Ards* = 12.1

Armagh^ = 12.7

Ballymena* = 11.8

Ballymoney* = 14.5

Banbridge* = 14.1

Belfast^ = 11.6

Carrickfergus* = 13.1

Castlereagh* = 12.0

Coleraine* = 10.6

Cookstown# = 12.1

Craigavon^ = 12.2

Derry# = 14.1

Down# = 12.3

Dungannon# = 14.5

Fermanagh^ = 13.7

Larne* = 12.9

Limavady# = 15.0

Lisburn* = 12.8

Magherafelt# = 14.8

Moyle# = 12.3

Newry & Mourne# = 14.7

Newtownabbey* = 12.4

North Down* = 10.4

Omagh# = 14.3

Strabane# = 13.0

Mean average for councils with Protestant majorities = 12.5

Mean average for councils with Catholic majorities = 13.7